We may only be just over a week removed from the 96th Academy Awards but why not look ahead to next year’s awards and predict the how the Oscars may look in March 2026. Now obviously, this is all complete speculation and these predictions will likely be in no way accurate, however it gives us a chance to talk about our new slate of movies for the upcoming year. One more obvious disclaimer is that we don’t know what films will be picked up by major distributers, we don’t know what our major festival line-ups will be, and we will never be able to predict the major surprise contenders of the year, no one this time last year was predicting The Substance, and no one before Cannes expected the new Sean Baker film to win 5 Oscars, so you never know what’ll surprise this year. With all that being said, here are my early 2026 Best Picture Oscar Predictions.

Best Picture

After the Hunt – Directed by Luca Guadagnino (Amazon MGM Studios) While both Challengers and Queer were shut out at the Oscars, After the Hunt seems to be a little more Oscary and has multiple potential actor nominations. Amazon tend to get a film nominated and this looks to be their best bet. Predicted Noms – 9

Bugonia – Directed by Yorgos Lanthimos (Focus Features) Considering that this sounds fairly comedic, I am a little worried, but comedies that focus on modern day political issues tend to play well with the Academy, and when Lanthimos doesn’t write his own film, it gets nominated. Predicted Noms – 6

Frankenstein – Directed by Guillermo Del Toro (Netflix) This is feels like the riskiest prediction here, but Frankenstein feels like it has multiple tech nominations walking in the door and it’s Guillermo Del Toro, who the Oscars love, and it’s always good to predict a Netflix film. Look out for Train Dreams as the Netflix contender though. Predicted Noms – 6

Hamnet – Directed by Chloe Zhao (Focus Features) I don’t know a lot about the book but I do know it’s very acclaimed and Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley starring in a film that will likely be gorgeously shot, it feels a pretty good bet. Predicted Noms – 6

The Life of Chuck – Directed by Mike Flanagan (Neon) In the last 15 years, only once has the winner of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival not been nominated for Best Picture. Neon deciding to release The Life of Chuck this year, and not compete with Anora, feels like Neon is confident in this movie. Look out for this to be the feel-good summer hit of 2025. Predicted Noms – 4

Marty Supreme – Directed by Josh Safdie (A24) This is the most expensive A24 film ever, and it has a Christmas release date. A24 clearly sees this as a big Oscar contender, and with Timothee Chalamet appearing in 7 best picture nominees before he turns 30, this feels pretty locked on to be a major awards contender. Predicted Noms – 8

One Battle After Another – Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson (Warner Bros.) PTA has been a bit hit or miss with the Academy his whole career, however test screenings of One Battle After Another have been extremely positive and, unlike The Master which the Oscars didn’t like, One Battle After Another seems like it’ll be a fun PTA film that’ll translate well to audiences. You never know how the Academy will react to PTA though. Predicted Noms – 12

The Roses – Directed by Jay Roach (Searchlight Pictures) I’m not seeing a lot of people predict this one but it’s a script from Tony McNamara, starring Olivia Colman and Benedict Cumberbatch who’ll get a lot of arguing scenes to help with get Oscar nominated, and It’s a Searchlight film. Searchlight have a pretty weak slate this year, so look out for them to acquire something, but until then, The Roses is their biggest contender. Predicted Noms – 4

Sentimental Value – Directed by Joachim Trier (Neon) There’s always one International film that’s nominated at the Oscars, and I do hope this year its Sentimental Value. Maybe this is just me seeking redemption for The Worst Person in the World not being more of an awards player, but I do think this has a shot. It’ll probably go to Cannes, and Neon has a great track record at Cannes. It also has a guaranteed International Feature nomination, so the Academy will at least see it. Maybe I’m just hoping that there’ll be redemption for Trier and Reinsve post Worst Person but to be fair, there’s not more to go off now than hope. Predicted Noms – 7

Wicked: For Good – Directed by Jon M. Chu (Universal) I doubted the first Wicked and I was wrong, so I’m not making that mistake again. Also, we know that this can get multiple tech nominations, and acting noms, and For Good has original songs as well. The only downside is that the second act of the musical is considered to be weaker than the first act, but I believe that they’re changing some things up so you never know how this’ll turn out. It just feels safer to predict it for awards buzz. Predicted Noms – 8

Other Potential Contenders – Ann Lee, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Ballad of a Small Player, Deliver Me from Nowhere, Die My Love, F1, Highest 2 Lowest, The History of Sound, Jay Kelly, Materialists, Michael, Mother Mary, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Smashing Machine, Train Dreams